Germany’s Snap Elections and the Fall of the ‘Traffic Light’ Coalition

• Germany’s ruling coalition, comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP), collapsed on November 6.

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, on November 6.

• A noconfidence motion against the government is set to be initiated on December 16, which Scholz is expected to lose without the support of the FDP.

• Scholz has agreed to hold snap elections on February 23, 2025, ahead of the scheduled election in September 2025.

• The coalition’s ineffectiveness is due to constant infighting over key issues such as the budget agreement, war with Ukraine, defense, and energy spending.

• Germany’s debt brake rule, which limits the EU country’s borrowing to 0.35% of its GDP, has been a significant issue.

• The opposition alliance, composed of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), is leading in opinion surveys.

• The ruling coalition relies on off-budget ‘special funds’ for economic spending without breaking the debt limit.

• A constitutional court ruled that transferring unused pandemic era debt to one of the funds was unconstitutional on November 15, 2023.

• The opposition alliance is leading in opinion surveys, with a poll showing the opposition alliance leading at 33%.

• The far-right party, AfD, is also gaining influence in the country, with approval rates at 17%.

• AfD has opposed all arms shipment to Ukraine and has called for strict rules against irregular migration and open borders.