How will Nasrallah’s murder affect West Asia?

• Israel has launched massive bombardments in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, killing at least 700 people and displacing over 1,000.
• The air strikes followed explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon, which hit hundreds of Hezbollah fighters.
• Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets into Israel, including a ballistic missile intercepted over Tel Aviv.
• The U.S. and France called for a ceasefire, but Israel quickly ruled out the proposal.
• Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, plans to continue fighting “until it meets its objectives” in Lebanon and achieving “total victory” against Hamas in Gaza.
• Hezbollah was formed as a Shia resistance organisation in 1982, with help from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
• The group’s raison d’etre is resistance against Israel, with the destruction of “the Zionist entity” as one of its goals.
• The last full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah was in 2006 when Israel invaded Lebanon after a Hezbollah cross-border raid.
• The latest flare-up was the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack in Israel, in which at least 1,200 people were killed.
• Israel launched its retaliatory war on Gaza, Hezbollah started firing rockets into Israel “in solidarity with the Palestinians”.
• Israel has rebuilt its weapons stocks since 2006, but Hezbollah’s response to Israel’s attacks has been limited.
• Israel has not met any of its declared objectives—the decimation of Hamas and the release of the hostages.
• Israel has ruled out a ceasefire on the Lebanese border and it’s not clear whether Israel would launch a ground invasion into Lebanon.
• The next question is whether Hezbollah (and Iran) will fold under pressure or regroup itself and fight the Jewish state with full force.